The US Department of Agriculture did not predict the retail price of eggs this fall

Social media users are stained after making false claims about egg price predictions.

“BREAKING NEWS: ‘USDA predicts egg price to be $12 per dozen by fall 2022,'” reads a June 6 Facebook post.

It was reported as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat fake news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Learn more about our partnership with Facebook.)

But the US Department of Agriculture didn’t make that prediction, according to Jennifer Smits, director of communications for the agency’s economic research service.

The Economic Research Service — tasked with anticipating emerging trends and issues in U.S. agriculture and food — does not publish retail egg prices, Smits said.

We also couldn’t find predicted retail prices for eggs in a review of recent USDA publications.

The USDA releases forecasts for wholesale egg prices, as well as forecasts for changes in the consumer price index and producer price index for food, Smits said. The May Price Index report indicated that retail egg prices are expected to increase between 19.5% and 20.5% in 2022.

Egg prices have also increased due to an ongoing outbreak of bird flu, which has reduced the number of chickens laying eggs in the United States, the price index report notes.

In April, the price of a dozen large Grade A eggs was $2.52, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to $1.93 in January. A 19.5% to 20.5% increase in the retail price in April translates to $0.49 to $0.52, or between $3.01 and $3.04 for a box, well below asking for $12 a dozen eggs.

Our decision

A Facebook post reads: “BREAKING NEWS: ‘USDA projects egg price to be $12 per dozen by fall 2022.’

The USDA did not make that prediction, according to a spokeswoman. The agency does not publish retail egg prices.

Last month, the price of eggs was $2.52 per dozen, and the price is expected to increase between 19.5 and 20.5% in 2022. That’s well below $12 per dozen eggs.

We assess whether the USDA made such a false prediction.